During the remainder of 2004 growth is obviously expected to slow down, as the baseline figures corresponding to the last four months of 2003 are already much stronger. The estimates for the first eight months of the year are of course quite exceptional and can only be judged correctly in the light of the negative or very weak figures recorded in the same period last year. Nonetheless, even compared to 2002, all regions still show positive figures. Asia and the Pacific's current results up to August are still 17% higher than the first eight months of 2002, the Americas are up 7% and Europe 5%, while the Middle East and Africa in 2003 already equalled or surpassed 2002 results.

A projection based on the data available for the first eight months, combined with a fairly conservative estimate for the remaining four months of 2004, indicates growth for the full year of 2004 of close to 10%. The last time a comparable percentage has been recorded was 20 years ago in 1984, when international tourism recovered from the persistently weak economy of the early 1980s due to the second oil crisis. In absolute numbers the increase corresponds to an estimated 65 to 70 million more arrivals. All regions will share in this increase, although not to the same extent. Almost half of all new arrivals will be recorded in Asia and the Pacific, which already took a share of 27 million of the 58 million new arrivals up to August. Europe, which is indeed growing at a slower pace but on a much larger base, will record the second largest share (16 million more arrivals already in the first eight months). The Americas, the Middle East and Africa, which respectively gained 9 million, 4 million and 2 million international arrivals up to August, will together take about the same share as Europe. WTO will present an in-depth analysis of 2004 in the January 2005 issue of the WTO World Tourism Barometer scheduled to be issued at the end of January on the occasion of the Spanish tourism fair FITUR.