First WTO World Tourism Barometer shows steadily improving conditions for international tourism

Madrid, 24 June 2003 - The results of the new WTO World Tourism Barometer indicate that international tourism might be close to a turning point. Although the world economy is still rather weak,
a change for the better is expected to take place in the second half of the year.

Initial data for 2003 clearly show the effects of the Iraq conflict and the SARS outbreak. Nevertheless, various destinations managed to post surprisingly good results, in particular, some of the recently most-afflicted destinations in the Caribbean, South America, and South Asia. With the uncertainty due to the geopolitical situation gradually falling away, the perspective is switching back towards economic prospects.

One of the innovative elements of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer is its Panel of Experts. Over one hundred tourism experts from all over the world consulted during May also confirmed a more positive outlook for the coming period. While the panel gave the previous four-month period, January to April, an average score of 2.8 (on a scale from 1 to 5), the period from May to August was rated at 3.6 (a score of 4 meaning "better"). All regions share expectations of improvement over the four months to come. Prospects for Europe show a notable improvement, although the biggest jump is found in the Middle East. Africa and the Americas were already upbeat about the past four months and maintain or even slightly improve their expectations for the coming four months. The outlook for Asia and the Pacific clearly reflects the concern over SARS. However, as the outbreak is virtually under control, prospects are also expected to improve quickly in this region.

According to the Secretary-General, Mr Frangialli, the optimism expressed by the UNWTO Panel of Experts is based on the expectation of a gradual improvement of the economic conditions, the reduction of uncertainty as a result of the relaxation of international tensions, and the waning of SARS. However, late reservations and noticeable price sensitivity are expected to persist as main market trends.